The Pulse of the American Workforce
A new, high-frequency ADP report offers a fragile sign of life in the U.S. job market, revealing a modest uptick after a discouraging slide.
In a significant shift in economic intelligence, the ADP Research Institute has begun releasing a weekly pulse of the U.S. private-sector labor market, and its first reading offers a tentative glimmer of hope. For the four weeks ending October 11, 2025, private employers added an average of 14,250 jobs per week, a modest but noteworthy reversal from the losses experienced in the prior month. This new high-frequency report arrives at a critical juncture, providing a vital data stream while the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports are delayed due to an ongoing government shutdown.
The preliminary October figures suggest a fragile stabilization after a troubling September, when the private sector shed 32,000 jobs. That decline marked the second consecutive month of job losses, painting a picture of a labor market that was losing momentum. The new weekly data, while not indicative of booming growth, suggests that the labor market may have found a floor and is beginning a slow climb back.
This chart illustrates the month-to-month volatility in private-sector job creation throughout 2025. The preliminary October figure is calculated by multiplying the new weekly average of 14,250 by four weeks. The data reveals a period of swings between modest gains and significant losses, highlighting the uncertainty employers have faced.
“It is not glorious. It is tepid, [but] we are seeing enough strength to keep consumer spending steady.”Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP
The downturn in September was felt broadly, with the service-providing sector bearing the brunt of the losses. While Education and Health Services continued to be a resilient source of job creation, adding 33,000 positions, other major sectors contracted. Leisure and Hospitality, a key engine of the post-pandemic recovery, shed 19,000 jobs, while the Professional and Business Services sector lost 13,000. This slowdown underscores the cautious approach U.S. employers have adopted in the face of economic uncertainty.
The detailed breakdown for September 2025 reveals a fractured labor market. The gains in healthcare and education were not enough to offset the significant declines in consumer-facing and professional service industries, leading to an overall net loss for the month.
“This high-frequency employment pulse... is based on ADP’s anonymized and aggregated administrative data on private-sector payrolls, providing a dynamic view of job creation and loss at an unprecedented level of weekly detail.”Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP
The introduction of ADP’s weekly report is a methodological leap forward, offering a more immediate read on the health of the economy. As the full monthly report for October approaches its release on November 5th, all eyes will be watching to see if this preliminary trend of tepid growth is confirmed. This slow, grinding recovery may be the new reality for the American workforce. The era of massive monthly job gains appears to be over, replaced by a period of careful, incremental hiring that closely mirrors the economy’s own uncertain trajectory.