The 92-to-2 Collapse: Why the ‘Bürgenstock Coalition’ Dissolved into a 28-Point Ultimatum

Analyzing the structural failure of the Switzerland peace track and the desperate mathematics of the new Yermak delegation

Date: November 22, 2025
Location: Zürich / Kyiv
Clearance: Level 5 (Strategic Foresight)

The era of the “Global Peace Summit” is officially dead. While the headlines this morning focus on the frantic arrival of Andriy Yermak’s delegation in Switzerland, the real story is not who is in the room, but who is missing. In June 2024, the Bürgenstock resort hosted 92 nations in a sprawling, performative display of Western solidarity. Today, as the Ukrainian delegation touches down, the table has shrunk to the barest, most brutal geometry possible: a bilateral pressure cooker between Kyiv and Washington, with the Swiss hosts serving not as neutral arbiters, but as custodians of a deadline.

The intelligence emerging from the Yermak-Umerov channel confirms our worst-case modeling: the “28-point peace outline” delivered by the Trump administration is not a negotiation starter; it is a liquidity event for the war. The transition from a multilateral “peace formula” to a bilateral ultimatum exposes the catastrophic failure of the 2024 diplomatic offensive. The “Switzerland Delegation” is no longer a diverse coalition of the willing; it is a crisis management team sent to negotiate the terms of survival against a shrinking clock.

The Anatomy of the Collapse: From Summit to Squeeze

To understand the precarious position of the current delegation, we must ruthlessly dissect the failure of its predecessor. The June 2024 Bürgenstock summit was hailed as a diplomatic triumph, but the data tells a different story—one of hollow consensus. While 92 delegations attended, the refusal of the “Transactional Non-Aligned” (India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Indonesia) to sign the final communiqué created a $34 trillion GDP void in the peace architecture.

That void has now been filled by the 28-point ultimatum. The failure to lock in the Global South in 2024 meant that when US support wavered in late 2025, there was no alternative diplomatic safety net to catch Kyiv. The chart below illustrates the structural weakness of the 2024 “victory” that led directly to today’s crisis.

The data reveals that while attendance was high among Western-aligned nations, the signature rate collapsed precisely where economic leverage (and relations with Russia) mattered most. The BRICS+ bloc attended (mostly) but refused to sign, effectively vetoing the consensus. Today, that “BRICS Veto” has metastasized into the Trump Ultimatum.